TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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CPI in September
kalshi

CPI in September

Volume:
$1,595,000

Above 0.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$642,455
N/A
N/A
$458,944
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$289,881
N/A
N/A
$83,838
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$74,028
N/A
N/A
$47,103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$71,743
N/A
N/A
$34,825
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,910
N/A
N/A
$3,578
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,462
N/A
N/A
$6,199
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,681
N/A
N/A
$3,903
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,735
N/A
N/A
$3,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,915
N/A
N/A
$3,571
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,846
N/A
N/A
$3,083
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316,989
N/A
N/A
$214,047
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86,929
N/A
N/A
$46,964
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,165
N/A
N/A
$28,358
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,261
N/A
N/A
$11,744
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

The Consumer Price Index will be measured in September 2026 to track monthly inflation trends. This economic indicator reflects changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services during that period.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the month-over-month Consumer Price Index for September 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the monthly CPI increase exceeds its specified threshold. The market closes at 8:25 AM ET on October 14, 2026 (the scheduled data release date). In the event of a federal government shutdown delaying data release, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants believe there is a high probability of CPI rising more than 0.2% in September 2026. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which are more divided on the potential for inflation to cool down by that time. However, it’s important to note that analyst predictions often vary widely, and this market reflects a real-time assessment of probabilities based on actual money at stake. The collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional polling or expert opinions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices based on their expectations. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts if they believe CPI will rise more than 0.2% or 'no' contracts if they believe it will not. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically as new information becomes available and traders update their views, creating a forward-looking indicator of inflation expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official CPI data for September 2026 is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual CPI increase, reflecting the collective prediction made in this market.

Several economic signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in employment numbers, changes in energy prices, or surprising statements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy could all cause traders to reassess their expectations for September 2026 inflation. Geopolitical events that disrupt supply chains or impact commodity markets could also play a role. Furthermore, revisions to previous CPI data or changes in the methodology used to calculate inflation could influence trading activity within this market.