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CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?
kalshi

CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?

Volume:
$22,262

Exactly 2.4%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 2.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 2.4%

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,880
N/A
N/A
$4,422
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,401
N/A
N/A
$190
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.3%

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,401
N/A
N/A
$5,053
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.5%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$944
N/A
N/A
$889
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$314
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.6%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
$248
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.7%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
$129
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.1%

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$113
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.2%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.0%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.9%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether core Consumer Price Index inflation will reach exactly 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026. On Kalshi, the Yes outcome stands at 49.5%, with the No outcome also at 49.5%, reflecting near-even odds on this inflation milestone. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI core year-over-year figure released for August 2026. Watch for the Labor Department's inflation data release scheduled for September 11, 2026, which will settle this contract.

Kalshi

If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.8% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.9% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.7% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026 dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this key inflation metric. You can monitor the current implied probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $1,002. The event has accumulated total volume of $22,262, reflecting trader interest in August 2026 core CPI expectations. This dashboard provides a live window into how prediction market participants are pricing inflation dynamics heading into late summer 2026.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations for August 2026 core CPI, often diverging from consensus analyst forecasts. While traditional economists and Federal Reserve officials publish point estimates and ranges, prediction markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction through continuous price discovery. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to Bloomberg consensus, Fed projections, and Wall Street economist surveys can reveal whether markets are pricing in more or less inflation risk than the mainstream forecast. This gap often signals where market participants see asymmetric risks.

The CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026 market resolves on Sep 11, 2026, following the official release of August 2026 inflation data. Resolution is determined by the actual year-over-year change in core CPI as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. The specific outcome category that matches the official BLS release will be marked correct, settling all positions on Kalshi accordingly.

Several catalysts could shift CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026 odds before resolution. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate guidance will influence inflation expectations and trader positioning. Monthly CPI releases leading up to August 2026 will provide real-time momentum signals. Wage growth data, producer prices, and commodity markets affect core inflation trajectories. Geopolitical shocks, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal policy announcements can reshape inflation forecasts. Labor market strength or weakness will influence both wage pressures and demand-side inflation. Each economic data point between now and the August 2026 CPI release will refine market expectations and move contract prices.