TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
CPI core month-over-month in May 2026?
kalshi

CPI core month-over-month in May 2026?

Volume:
$470,874

Exactly 0.2%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 0.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 10, 2026

Closed: Jun 10, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,040
N/A
N/A
$4,012
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$291,920
N/A
N/A
$3,511
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52,664
N/A
N/A
$32,054
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,048
N/A
N/A
$6,532
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,346
N/A
N/A
$6,913
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,723
N/A
N/A
$504
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,382
N/A
N/A
$2,444
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,752
N/A
N/A
$3,367
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether the core Consumer Price Index will record a month-over-month change of exactly 0.1% in May 2026, a key inflation gauge that excludes volatile food and energy components. On Kalshi, the probability of a 0.1% reading stands at 48.0%, with a 29.0% probability assigned to other outcomes within the expected range of -0.2% to +0.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI data release, with the betting period closing on June 10, 2026, when the May inflation figures become available.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official core CPI month-over-month figure for May 2026. The outcome is determined by the actual published data from the BLS, which measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy components. Resolution occurs once the government report is official and verified, settling all positions based on which outcome bracket or threshold the actual reading falls into.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions and forward guidance on interest rates, which influence inflation expectations and consumer spending. Employment reports, wage growth data, and producer price indices in the months leading up to May provide early signals of demand and cost pressures. Commodity price movements, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical events can shift inflation trajectories. Additionally, retail sales, housing starts, and consumer confidence reports help traders refine their forecasts. Any surprise in these indicators typically triggers sharp repricing of the market odds as traders update their probability estimates.