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CPI core month-over-month in Jul 2026?
kalshi

CPI core month-over-month in Jul 2026?

Volume:
$24,870

Exactly 0.2%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 0.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,607
N/A
N/A
$1,146
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,382
N/A
N/A
$3,602
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,036
N/A
N/A
$3,430
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,397
N/A
N/A
$1,266
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$902
N/A
N/A
$902
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46
N/A
N/A
$46
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether core Consumer Price Index inflation will register at exactly 0.5% month-over-month in July 2026. On Kalshi, the Yes outcome is at 50.0% and the No outcome is at 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI core month-over-month figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Watch for the August 12, 2026 CPI release date, which will provide the definitive month-over-month reading for July and settle this market.

Kalshi

If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.0% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Aug 12, 2026, following the official release of July 2026 core CPI data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome is determined by the actual month-over-month percentage change in the core Consumer Price Index for that month. Resolution occurs after the data is published and verified, at which point contracts settle according to which outcome bracket or range the reported figure falls into, paying out to holders of the correct outcome.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions and forward guidance on interest rates, which influence inflation expectations and wage-price dynamics. Energy and commodity price movements, supply-chain disruptions, and labor market strength all feed into core inflation momentum. Consumer spending patterns, housing costs, and service-sector pricing power are critical components of core CPI. Unexpected economic data—employment reports, retail sales, producer prices—can shift trader expectations about inflation trajectory. Geopolitical events or trade policy changes may also move markets by altering inflation forecasts heading into July 2026.