Core CPI in November

Currently, the implied probability of core CPI rising more than 0.0% in November 2026, as reflected in this market, is 99.0%. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often rely on economic models and surveys. While those forecasts provide valuable insights, they don’t always capture the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders actively putting their capital at risk. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes anticipate shifts in economic sentiment before they are reflected in traditional forecasts, offering a potentially different perspective on the likely path of inflation.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for contracts that pay out based on the November 2026 core CPI value. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own expectations, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market.

This market resolves around Dec 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official November 2026 core CPI data is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the core CPI figure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual core CPI value meets the conditions specified in the market contracts. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions following the official resolution.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in employment figures, wage growth, and overall economic activity will all be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in energy prices or geopolitical events could also influence inflation expectations and, therefore, the price of contracts in this market. Furthermore, statements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, such as potential interest rate adjustments, are likely to cause volatility. Any data suggesting a significant acceleration or deceleration of inflation will likely lead to substantial price movements.