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$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

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2,622

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5

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39%

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Kalshi:

61%

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CPI core in July
kalshi

CPI core in July

Volume:
$72,067

Above 0.1%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,729
N/A
N/A
$20,365
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,513
N/A
N/A
$6,798
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,231
N/A
N/A
$12,839
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,475
N/A
N/A
$3,418
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,222
N/A
N/A
$1,709
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,748
N/A
N/A
$735
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,531
N/A
N/A
$514
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,719
N/A
N/A
$1,114
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,012
N/A
N/A
$770
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
$525
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
$143
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the seasonally adjusted core Consumer Price Index for urban consumers will increase month-over-month in July 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that core CPI rises above 0.0% stands at 99.0%. The resolution will be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official CPI report for July 2026. Watch for the BLS release scheduled for August 12, 2026, which will provide the definitive seasonally adjusted core inflation figure for the month.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. Each outcome corresponds to a specific monthly core inflation threshold: the market resolves Yes if the reported month-over-month change exceeds the threshold for that outcome. All outcomes use the same underlying data source and measurement methodology. In the event of a federal government shutdown that impacts data reliability, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of either the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

The CPI core in July market on Kalshi resolves on Aug 12, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official core Consumer Price Index figure released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for July. The market settles based on whether the month-over-month change in core CPI exceeds 0.1% or not. Once the BLS publishes the final July CPI data, Kalshi will verify the outcome against the contract terms and settle all positions accordingly. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless.

Several catalysts could shift CPI core in July odds before the July release. June CPI data will provide the most recent inflation print and set expectations for July momentum. Federal Reserve communications, including FOMC statements and Chair Powell remarks, signal policy direction and inflation concerns. Employment reports, wage growth data, and commodity prices influence inflation expectations. Retail sales and consumer spending figures suggest demand-side pressure. Energy prices and supply-chain developments affect input costs. Unexpected geopolitical events or financial market shocks can reprrice inflation risk. Each data release or policy signal typically triggers repricing on Kalshi as traders update their probability estimates.