Costco Q3 US adjusted comparable sales growth?

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs and often diverge from consensus analyst estimates. Analysts typically issue point forecasts or narrow ranges based on historical trends and macro conditions, while prediction markets price a full distribution of outcomes. The current market pricing suggests strong conviction around mid-range growth scenarios. Comparing market odds to published analyst consensus can reveal whether traders are more bullish, bearish, or aligned with Wall Street expectations for Costco's Q3 comp sales performance.

The market is scheduled to resolve on May 28, 2026. Resolution is determined by Costco's official Q3 earnings announcement, which includes the company's reported US adjusted comparable sales growth figure. This metric measures year-over-year sales growth for stores open at least one year, excluding fuel and currency effects. Once Costco releases its quarterly results, the outcome is verified against the predefined resolution criteria, and winning contracts are settled accordingly.

Key catalysts include monthly retail sales data, consumer confidence indices, and inflation trends that affect discretionary spending at warehouse clubs. Costco's own membership renewal rates and traffic patterns provide early signals of demand strength. Competitor earnings and guidance on consumer health offer context. Macroeconomic shifts—interest rates, employment, wage growth—influence household purchasing power. Management commentary during earnings calls or investor conferences can reset expectations. Additionally, any guidance revisions or pre-announcements by Costco ahead of the official Q3 report could significantly shift market pricing.