TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Core PCE YoY - September 2026
polymarket

What will Core PCE YoY be?

Volume:
$34,445

3.1%

 - Polymarket

3.1% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:31 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.1%

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,724
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3.0%

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤2.7%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.2%

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.3%+

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While a significant number of analysts predict a continued decline in inflation, the odds on Polymarket indicate a higher probability of inflation remaining above 2.5%. This divergence could reflect the market’s assessment of factors not fully captured in conventional economic models, such as supply chain dynamics or geopolitical risks. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Core PCE inflation outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The current price of a contract for a specific inflation rate indicates the implied probability of that rate occurring in September 2026, according to traders on Polymarket.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Core PCE Price Index data for September 2026 is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes this data, and the market will settle based on the year-over-year percentage change in the Core PCE Price Index as reported by the BEA. The specific percentage change reported by the BEA will determine which outcome in this market is considered the winner.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, such as changes to interest rates or quantitative easing, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major geopolitical events, like significant disruptions to global supply chains, could also influence inflation expectations and, therefore, the market. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases, including monthly inflation reports and employment figures, will be closely watched by traders and could lead to substantial movements in the odds for this market.