TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Core PCE YoY - July 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Core PCE YoY - July 2026

Volume:
$120,741

3.3%

 - Polymarket

3.3% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 10:36 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.3%

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,334
N/A
N/A
$19,020
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,120
N/A
N/A
$13,930
Settled
No
polymarket

3.2%

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,925
N/A
N/A
$5,596
Settled
No
polymarket

≤3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.4%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.6%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,076
N/A
N/A
$580
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group tracks the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) for July 2026. The markets are focused on different thresholds and specific values of this economic indicator as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use different calculation methodologies (month-over-month vs year-over-year) for Core PCE, leading to fundamentally different resolution criteriaHero tip: Do not treat these markets as correlated. Kalshi resolves on MoM change thresholds while Polymarket resolves on specific YoY percentage levels. They represent entirely different analytical perspectives on inflation data

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on month-over-month percent change in Core PCE being above thresholds from 0.0% to 0.4% in July 2026. Key quote: "If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.0% in July 2026... then the market resolves to Yes"
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on year-over-year percentage change in Core PCE for the 12-month period ending July 2026 against specific values from 3.0% to 3.6% or more. Key quote: "This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026"
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the month-over-month percent change in the core PCE Price Index for July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, measured to one decimal place. The event contains tiered thresholds ranging from above 0.0% to above 0.4% monthly change. Markets will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected data release date and expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following release or one week after the expected release date. Resolution reflects whether the reported inflation figure exceeds each specified threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Core PCE YoY market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of different inflation outcomes for July 2026. It displays consensus odds, volume of $120,741, and 24-hour volume of $27,788, letting users see where betting activity is concentrated and how expectations shift over time.

Currently, prediction markets assign a very high probability to inflation staying near or above zero, reflecting a consensus that price pressures will remain muted. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts that allow for a slightly wider range of outcomes, including modest upside risks. The gap highlights how market participants may be pricing in policy constraints or structural factors that analysts treat as less certain.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can diverge because of differences in user base, liquidity, and design features. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one venue might attract more retail traders focused on short-term news, while the other could see heavier institutional participation that favors longer-term macroeconomic views. These dynamics can push the two platforms toward different implied probabilities even when they track the same event.

Key drivers include monthly CPI releases, Fed policy announcements, and shifts in energy or commodity prices that feed into core inflation calculations. Unexpected remarks from central bankers about future rate moves can also cause rapid repricing, as can revisions to past data that alter the trajectory traders see for July’s outcome.