TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Core PCE MoM - September 2026
polymarket

What will Core PCE MoM be?

Oct 1, 2026, 7:13 PM EST - Oct 29, 2026, 9:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$36,097
Volume 24h:
$10,782
2,870%
Liquidity:
$13,579
35%
Open interest:
$3,765N/A

0.3%

 - Polymarket

0.3% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Time left: 05d:15h:40m

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?

64%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 64% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
64%
Yes 64¢No 37¢
1¢
$603
$14,531
44%
83%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
25%
6%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
$1,840
$8,364
104%
222%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
7%
Yes 8.9¢No 94.3¢
3.2¢
$3,972
$5,678
11%
22%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
polymarket

0.1%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.8¢
2.5¢
$1,061
$3,670
8%
16%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
polymarket

0.5%+

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.3¢
1.5¢
$1,607
$1,493
65%
123%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
polymarket

0.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$2,802
$1,368
25%
51%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
polymarket

≤-0.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
—
$1,695
$994
54%
54%
N/A
5d 15h 40m
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Core PCE inflation market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the September 2026 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, month-over-month. You can view the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $10,790. Total volume for this market is $36,097. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe about future inflation, as reflected in their buy and sell activity on Polymarket.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for inflation. While economists polled by various sources predict a range of potential Core PCE increases, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with capital, potentially revealing a more accurate signal. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors influencing future inflation. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming a view on the economic outlook.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing different potential Core PCE inflation rates. The price of a share reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and refine their expectations, creating a constantly updated forecast of inflation. The current top outcome is not available, but the market's overall volume indicates active participation.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official September 2026 Core PCE price index data is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes this data, and the market will settle based on the reported month-over-month percentage change in the Core PCE price index. Traders should monitor the BEA’s release schedule for the exact timing of the data publication, as this will determine the final settlement of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as employment reports or other inflation indicators, could shift trader sentiment. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, including interest rate adjustments or forward guidance, would likely cause substantial movement. Geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions could also influence inflation expectations and, consequently, the price action in this market. Furthermore, revisions to previously released economic data could lead to reassessments of the economic outlook and affect trading activity.