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406,065

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2,692

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5

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Core PCE MoM - July 2026
polymarket

What is the Core PCE MoM for July 2026?

Volume:
$42,079

0.2%

 - Polymarket

0.2% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 10:36 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.2%

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$8,564
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.3%

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.4%+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,266
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,541
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤-0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,276
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

-0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the current odds and price movements for the Core PCE MoM market, along with 24-hour volume of $3,568. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the probability of different monthly changes in the core personal consumption expenditures inflation rate, offering a real-time view of market expectations up to Aug 26, 2026.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more nuanced or forward-looking outlook, incorporating real-time trader sentiment and market dynamics. While analysts may provide a central estimate, the market can price in a wider range of possibilities, including tail risks or rapid shifts in economic policy, giving a complementary perspective on expected inflation changes.

This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final figure will be drawn from the official Bureau of Economic Analysis release, and the market will settle based on that verified number.

Key events that could shift this market include upcoming U.S. CPI and PCE reports, Federal Reserve policy announcements, major changes in oil prices, and shifts in consumer spending behavior. Each new data point will be scrutinized for implications for inflation trends, with stronger-than-expected figures likely pushing probabilities toward higher outcomes and vice versa.