TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
kalshi

Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Volume:
$462,755

Above 2.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$191,328
N/A
N/A
$123,706
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.1%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,419
N/A
N/A
$26,345
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.2%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,803
N/A
N/A
$14,244
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
100%
89%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,307
N/A
N/A
$11,420
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.3%

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,892
N/A
N/A
$13,340
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,413
N/A
N/A
$29,064
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,762
N/A
N/A
$8,067
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,493
N/A
N/A
$4,551
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,252
N/A
N/A
$1,965
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,886
N/A
N/A
$1,364
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,254
N/A
N/A
$3,563
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,293
N/A
N/A
$1,897
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,748
N/A
N/A
$1,231
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,565
N/A
N/A
$1,458
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,339
N/A
N/A
$1,257
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether the year-over-year core inflation rate – excluding food and energy – in the United States will exceed 2.1% as of September 2026, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. Currently, the “Yes” outcome, representing a rate above 2.1%, is trading at 99.0% on Kalshi. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ reported CPI data. Traders should watch the release of the September 2026 CPI data, scheduled for publication by October 14, 2026, as this will determine the final inflation rate and resolve the market.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the year-over-year Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy in September 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. Each outcome resolves to Yes if core inflation exceeds its specified threshold. In the event of a federal government shutdown delaying data release, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to make a direct comparison between the predictions reflected in this market and those of economic analysts. However, a common question in economic forecasting is whether core inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Polls of professional forecasters often show a wide range of expectations, and this market provides a unique, real-money perspective on where inflation is headed. It will be interesting to see how this market’s predictions evolve as we get closer to September 2026 and more economic data becomes available.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different core CPI inflation rates for September 2026. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific inflation rate occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular rate is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will be. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information from a diverse range of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official core CPI inflation rate for September 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases this data, and the market will settle based on their reported year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for all items less food and energy (Core CPI). Traders will be looking closely at economic indicators leading up to that date to refine their predictions.

Numerous economic signals could significantly impact this market. Key indicators include monthly CPI and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports, employment data (especially wage growth), and Federal Reserve policy announcements. Unexpected shifts in energy prices or supply chain disruptions could also play a role. Geopolitical events and changes in global economic conditions can also influence inflation expectations. Any news that alters perceptions of the strength of the US economy or the Federal Reserve’s commitment to its inflation target could cause substantial movement in this market.