TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Core CPI YoY in November
kalshi

Core CPI YoY in November

Jun 10, 2026, 2:15 PM EST - Dec 10, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$275,835
Volume 24h:
$97,311N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$123,982
31%

Above 2.2%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 10, 2026

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in November 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 8% 47 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.2%

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$45,074
322%
322%
$22,043
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.0%

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$12,934
0%
0%
$3,506
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.3%

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$15,354
0%
85%
$8,933
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.4%

Trade
97%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$23,259
107%
113%
$12,388
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.1%

Trade
97%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$2,473
0%
0%
$716
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
95%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
N/A
$11,542
0%
17%
$3,813
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.6%

Trade
90%
Yes 91¢No 10¢
1¢
N/A
$16,594
0%
5%
$7,991
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.7%

Trade
79%
Yes 79¢No 22¢
1¢
N/A
$11,620
0%
8%
$7,187
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.8%

Trade
59%
Yes 59¢No 42¢
1¢
N/A
$10,361
1%
1%
$2,049
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 2.9%

Trade
33%
1%
Yes 35¢No 68¢
3¢
N/A
$48,528
3%
5%
$40,320
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
21%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$9,515
1%
5%
$4,694
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$17,400
0%
15%
$3,194
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$7,497
0.41%
52%
$897
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$16,460
0.14%
12%
$2,256
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$15,003
0%
61%
$2,235
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$12,219
0%
0%
$1,760
1mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 16

Description

This event tracks whether core inflation in the United States, measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy, will exceed various threshold levels over the twelve-month period ending in November 2026. Core inflation is a key economic indicator that excludes volatile food and energy prices to better reflect underlying price pressures in the economy.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy year-over-year increase for the twelve months ending November 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. The event encompasses multiple thresholds ranging from above 2.1% to above 3.5%, allowing participants to bet on different core inflation intensity levels. If a federal government shutdown delays the data release and impacts the reliability of the source agency, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of the actual data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a strong belief that core inflation will remain elevated. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts which predict a more significant decline in inflation by late 2026. However, it’s important to note that analyst expectations are diverse, and there is a wide range of predictions regarding future inflation rates. This market provides a unique, forward-looking perspective based on the collective judgment of traders, offering a different signal than traditional economic surveys and expert opinions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different core inflation outcomes, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market’s probability assessment of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations. The price of a contract indicates the implied probability of that outcome occurring, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the future rate of core inflation.

This market resolves around Dec 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official November 2026 core CPI data is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The core CPI rate used for resolution will be the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy. Traders will be looking closely at economic indicators released in the months leading up to the resolution date to refine their predictions and adjust their positions in this market.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, such as changes to interest rates or quantitative easing, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions could also influence inflation expectations. Furthermore, consistently surprising economic data releases – particularly those related to employment, wages, and producer price indices – will be closely watched by traders and could lead to substantial movements in the core inflation market. Any unexpected energy price shocks could also play a role.