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Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
kalshi

Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Volume:
$108,301

Above 2.8%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.8% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 10, 2026

Closed: Jun 10, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,447
N/A
N/A
$10,751
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,135
N/A
N/A
$10,018
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,981
N/A
N/A
$2,115
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,700
N/A
N/A
$1,096
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$843
N/A
N/A
$843
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
$446
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,806
N/A
N/A
$21,784
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,653
N/A
N/A
$12,187
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,815
N/A
N/A
$10,704
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,321
N/A
N/A
$1,223
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,131
N/A
N/A
$602
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$797
N/A
N/A
$783
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$668
N/A
N/A
$656
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether core inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy, will exceed 2.4% on a year-over-year basis for the twelve-month period ending in May 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that core CPI will be above 2.4%—stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the twelve months ending May 2026, expected around June 10, 2026. Watch the May 2026 CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the definitive year-over-year core inflation figure.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY) event on Kalshi. You can monitor the current probability that core CPI will exceed 2.9% year-over-year in May 2026, along with live price movements and order flow. The dashboard displays $108,301 in total group volume and $6,830 in 24-hour trading activity, giving you a clear view of market conviction and liquidity. Track how odds shift as new economic data and Federal Reserve communications emerge, helping you time your trades and understand where the crowd expects inflation to land by mid-2026.

The Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY) market resolves on Jun 10, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official year-over-year core CPI figure released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for May 2026. The outcome hinges on whether that published rate exceeds 2.9% or not. This is an objective, government-reported metric with no ambiguity, making it a clean settlement event. Traders should monitor BLS release schedules and any revisions to prior months' data, as these can shift expectations in the weeks leading up to the final May reading.

Several catalysts will likely shift odds on this market. Monthly CPI releases between now and May 2026 are the most direct signal; each print either reinforces or challenges the disinflationary trend. Federal Reserve policy decisions and forward guidance will influence inflation expectations, especially if rate cuts or holds surprise markets. Energy and commodity prices, wage growth data, and supply-chain developments all feed into core inflation dynamics. Geopolitical shocks, fiscal policy shifts, and shifts in consumer demand could also move the needle. Watch for any significant revisions to prior months' core CPI figures, as these can reset baseline expectations and trigger repricing across the entire forecast horizon.