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$154.8b

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$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

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4,526

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5

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Core goods CPI MoM in September
kalshi

How will core goods CPI change in September?

Volume:
$13

Above -0.2%

 - Kalshi

Above -0.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
$0
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event monitors the monthly change in core goods prices within the U.S. consumer basket for September 2026, excluding volatile food and energy components. Markets assess whether price increases or decreases cross specific thresholds, offering insight into underlying consumer spending patterns.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026, defined as “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The percentage change used is from the first BLS CPI release reporting September 2026 data, at its published precision. The value will not be recalculated from index levels. Subsequent revisions, including revisions to seasonal adjustments, will not affect resolution. Each market has a specific threshold: if the reported change exceeds the threshold (e.g., -0.2%, -0.1%, etc.), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Core CPI market tracks the current implied probabilities of various outcomes for the monthly change in the Core Consumer Price Index. You’ll find a price feed reflecting where traders are setting the price for a 'Yes' or 'No' outcome, alongside the total volume traded – currently at $13 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how activity is evolving as the September CPI data approaches. The dashboard also shows the top outcome as perceived by traders on Kalshi.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast based on traders’ assessments of economic conditions and expectations for inflation. These can differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on modeling and surveys. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge as new data releases or unexpected events influence market participants’ views. This market provides a real-time, incentive-driven view of what traders believe is most likely to happen with the Core CPI, potentially offering a different perspective than static analyst predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the Core CPI MoM in September being above or below a certain threshold. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their valuations based on incoming economic data and their own analysis, creating a dynamic price discovery process. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding different possible outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official September Core CPI data is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes this data, and the market will settle based on the reported month-over-month percentage change in the Core CPI. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on any pre-release information or expectations, but the official BLS figure will be the final determining factor for this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in employment data, particularly the monthly jobs report, often influence inflation expectations and could move prices. Changes in energy prices, especially oil, can also have a ripple effect on the CPI. Furthermore, any statements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy or inflation targets will be closely watched by traders. Geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions could also introduce volatility, potentially causing substantial movements in this market before Oct 21, 2026.