TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Core CPI YoY - October 2026
polymarket

What will Core CPI YoY be?

Oct 14, 2026, 2:42 PM EST - Nov 10, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$29,774
Volume 24h:
$374
91%
Liquidity:
$23,574
22%
Open interest:
$4,545N/A

2.6%

 - Polymarket

2.6% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 10, 2026

Time left: 07d:22h:43m

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% High Projected APY: 7,291% 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

2.6%

Trade
88%
1%
Yes 91¢No 15¢
6¢
$2,504
$14,885
1%
178%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

2.7%

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 8.9¢No 94.9¢
3.8¢
$2,080
$2,172
0.23%
195%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

2.4%

Trade
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.2¢
1.3¢
$1,772
$1,805
0%
363%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

≤2.2%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$2,884
$1,116
4%
141%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

2.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
0.6¢
$2,387
$1,162
2%
181%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

3.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$2,371
$1,356
0%
110%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

2.8%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$2,551
$1,363
2%
297%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

≥3.1%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$2,975
$1,068
3%
173%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

2.3%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$2,221
$1,427
3%
266%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
polymarket

2.5%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,829
$3,421
0.8%
143%
N/A
1w 22h
Active
Total markets: 10

Description

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Core CPI inflation market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the Core Consumer Price Index year-over-year change in October 2026. You can see the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $419 and the total volume is $29,774. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different inflation rates, offering insight into market sentiment surrounding future economic conditions. This is a valuable resource for anyone following inflation expectations.

Currently, analysts generally anticipate a moderate level of inflation through 2026, with forecasts varying based on economic models and geopolitical factors. However, this market reflects a different perspective, aggregating the collective wisdom of traders. The implied probability of specific outcomes in this market may differ from traditional analyst forecasts, potentially offering a more forward-looking view. It's important to note that prediction markets can incorporate information and react to events more quickly than traditional forecasting methods, leading to potentially divergent expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Core CPI YoY figure for October 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be the determining factor. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on whether their predicted outcome matches the reported CPI figure. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on widely accepted economic data, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in energy prices, geopolitical events, or major changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could all influence inflation expectations. Stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected economic data releases, such as employment reports or GDP growth figures, could also cause traders to reassess their predictions. Furthermore, any significant supply chain disruptions or changes in consumer spending patterns could move this market as traders adjust their views on the future trajectory of the Core CPI YoY rate.