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Core CPI YoY - August 2026
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi
polymarket

What will the Core CPI YoY be by September 11, 2026?

Total volume:
$74,874
Volume 24h:
$6,050
166%
Liquidity:
$5,930
39%
Open interest:
$36,441
11%

Above 2.1%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 01d:04h:55m

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.1%

Trade
97%
Yes 100¢No 8¢
8¢
N/A
$11,582
0%
12%
$11,345
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.2%

Trade
92%
3%
Yes 97¢No 7¢
4¢
N/A
$6,940
25%
184%
$4,053
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.3%

Trade
62%
1%
Yes 65¢No 38¢
3¢
N/A
$6,568
0.79%
441%
$4,996
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

2.4%

Trade
48%
1%
Yes 48¢No 53¢
1¢
$1,529
$13,283
4%
67%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

2.3%

Trade
34%
4%
Yes 36¢No 69¢
5¢
$525
$2,533
5%
27%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
33%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$153
0%
2%
$56
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
29%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$558
0%
0%
$456
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
23%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$151
0%
0%
$85
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.4%

Trade
19%
7%
Yes 19¢No 90¢
9¢
N/A
$9,427
34%
237%
$7,110
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
18%
Yes 6¢No 100¢
6¢
N/A
$480
0%
12%
$351
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
15%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$144
0%
0%
$16
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

2.5%

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$604
$3,674
22%
88%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 2.6%

Trade
13%
Yes 7¢No 100¢
7¢
N/A
$310
0%
12%
$252
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$126
0%
0%
$53
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

2.6%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 5¢No 98.2¢
3.2¢
$239
$1,168
17%
27%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

2.2%

Trade
3%
7%
Yes 4.7¢No 98.6¢
3.3¢
$598
$865
17%
89%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 2.7%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$8,682
0%
2%
$6,009
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

2.7%

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.4¢No 99.7¢
3.1¢
$240
$1,291
13%
21%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

≤2.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.7¢
2.5¢
$770
$644
24%
70%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

2.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.4¢
1.6¢
$286
$1,130
12%
22%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

2.1%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.6¢
1.5¢
$247
$685
32%
92%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 2.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 22¢No 100¢
22¢
N/A
$3,104
0%
0%
$1,044
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

≥2.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$893
$678
22%
46%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 11.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 11.3¢Max: 22¢
kalshi

Above 2.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$378
0%
0%
$305
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$320
0%
0%
$309
1d 4h 55m
active
Total markets: 25

Description

This group of markets focuses on predicting the year-over-year percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) for August 2026. Core CPI measures inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices, providing insight into underlying inflation trends.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets resolve using the same official BLS Core CPI YoY figure for August 2026, reported to one decimal place.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report for August 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the Core CPI YoY percentage change reported in the BLS August 2026 report.
  • The reported value is rounded to one decimal place (e.g., 2.8%).
  • Markets with thresholds (e.g., "more than 2.1%") resolve to Yes if the reported value exceeds the threshold, and No otherwise.
  • The Polymarket market for "2.9% or more" resolves to Yes if the value is 2.9% or higher, and No if lower.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • BLS Report Delay: If the BLS does not release the August 2026 report on September 11, 2026, the market will resolve using the most recent previous month's data, per Polymarket rules.
  • Exact Threshold Values: For thresholds like "more than 2.1%", a reported value of exactly 2.1% resolves to No. Only values above the threshold resolve to Yes.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, scheduled for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

The market measures year-over-year core Consumer Price Index growth (All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy) for the twelve-month period ending August 2026, using the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each outcome corresponds to a specific inflation threshold, with resolution to Yes if the reported core CPI increase exceeds that threshold. In the event of delays caused by federal government shutdown affecting data reliability, the market's expiration date extends to the sooner of the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the August 2026 Core CPI market aggregates pricing and liquidity from multiple venues, letting you see how Polymarket and Kalshi users price the probability of different inflation outcomes for the year ending August 2026. It shows total volume of $74,874 and recent 24-hour volume of $6,050, offering a consensus view of market expectations across platforms.

Currently, this market suggests a higher probability of inflation staying near target levels than many traditional forecasts, which often include wider bands or different time horizons. Prediction markets reflect real-time trader sentiment and can react faster to new data, whereas analyst forecasts may incorporate longer-term models or policy expectations. Comparing both gives a fuller picture of near-term market dynamics.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see larger institutional positions that move more slowly. These factors often create a spread of 49.5 between the two venues, especially ahead of major economic releases.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official inflation figure for the August 2026 period is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage will settle all contracts based on the verified statistical release, closing the market definitively.