TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Core CPI MoM - July 2026
kalshi
polymarket

What will the Core CPI MoM be in July 2026?

Volume:
$178,857

0.2%

 - Polymarket

0.2% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 11:10 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.2%

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$56,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.3%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.1%

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤0.0%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,885
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.4%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.6%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,787
N/A
N/A
$3,131
Settled
No
polymarket

0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event group tracks the month-over-month change in Core CPI (Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy) for July 2026. Polymarket offers granular binary markets on specific percentage outcomes (0.0% or less, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6% or more), while Kalshi's market on egg prices represents a fundamentally different economic metric and scope.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring fundamentally different economic indicators. Polymarket resolves on official BLS Core CPI MoM data; Kalshi resolves on egg prices, which is a commodity subset not directly comparable to headline or core inflation metrics.Hero tip: Recognize these as separate markets. Polymarket's Core CPI suite (questions 1-8) form a unified, mutually exclusive set resolving on BLS data. Kalshi's egg price market is independent and should not be treated as a hedge or correlated bet. Verify Kalshi's data source and methodology before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Eight binary markets covering Core CPI MoM outcomes from 0.0% or less through 0.6% or more. Resolves on official BLS Consumer Price Index report released August 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. Precision: one decimal place. Fallback: if BLS delays, market remains open until next scheduled CPI release; if still unavailable, resolves on most recent prior month data.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market on egg price movement (Above 0% in July 2026 = Yes). No explicit resolution source, methodology, data provider, or timing specified. Lacks clarity on whether this tracks USDA egg prices, futures, retail, or another index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

If the price of eggs rises by Above 0% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Core CPI monthly inflation market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on how core consumer prices will move in July 2026. This market excludes volatile food and energy components, focusing instead on underlying inflation trends that matter most to policymakers and investors. Traders on both venues are pricing their conviction about whether the month-over-month change will hit specific thresholds. The combined volume and cross-platform consensus provide a real-time gauge of market expectations ahead of the official release, helping participants benchmark their own inflation outlook against the crowd.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional economist surveys because they reward accuracy with real money, creating strong incentives for precision. Traders incorporate the latest economic data, Fed communications, and market-moving events in real time, whereas analyst forecasts may lag or reflect older assumptions. This market's odds reflect live conviction from participants with skin in the game, making them a complementary signal to consensus estimates. Comparing the two can reveal whether the market is pricing in more or less inflation risk than the mainstream view, highlighting potential surprises or consensus blind spots.

Major economic data releases—especially employment reports, retail sales, and producer inflation—often shift expectations for consumer prices and can swing odds significantly. Federal Reserve communications and interest rate decisions influence inflation expectations and trader positioning. Commodity price swings, particularly oil and food, can create spillover effects even in a core CPI market. Geopolitical shocks or supply-chain disruptions may also reshape inflation forecasts. As July approaches, preliminary economic indicators and forward guidance will likely tighten the market's range, with final positioning often driven by the week immediately before the official release.