TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Core CPI MoM - August 2026
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi
polymarket

What will the Core CPI MoM be in August 2026?

Total volume:
$41,689
Volume 24h:
$15,832
139%
Liquidity:
$34,723
132%
Open interest:
$4,958
18%

Exactly 0.4%

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 01d:04h:55m

CPI core month-over-month in Aug 2026?

80%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 80% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

Trade
80%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$31
0%
0%
$22
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 97.7¢
0.1¢
$6,044
$3,164
104%
1,377%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
41%
Yes 6.2¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 5.1¢Max: 10¢
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

Trade
66%
19%
Yes 71¢No 64¢
35¢
N/A
$2,998
40%
129%
$1,944
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
66%
9%
Yes 66¢No 35¢
1¢
$5,440
$11,219
23%
133%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
66%
Yes 68.5¢No 49.5¢
Avg: 18¢Max: 35¢
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

Trade
56%
10%
Yes 58¢No 77¢
35¢
N/A
$2,265
47%
639%
$1,570
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
26%
8%
Yes 27¢No 75¢
2¢
$7,424
$8,366
110%
1,024%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
41%
Yes 42.5¢No 76¢
Avg: 18.5¢Max: 35¢
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

Trade
8%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$39
0%
0%
$39
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

0.1%

Trade
7%
2%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
$6,988
$5,424
56%
642%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

Trade
6%
3%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
N/A
$1,164
122%
209%
$1,017
1d 4h 55m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6.5%
Yes 7.5¢No 94.5¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

Trade
7%
Yes 11¢No 100¢
11¢
N/A
$180
0%
0%
$65
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

Trade
7%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$48
0%
0%
$48
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$4
0%
0%
$3
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

0.5%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,443
$1,218
48%
432%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

≤0.0%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.4¢
0.3¢
$5,675
$4,356
183%
1,430%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.6%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$50
0%
1,467%
$50
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Exactly 0.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Exactly 1.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$50
0%
0%
$50
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

0.6%+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,708
$962
24%
366%
N/A
18h 54m
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group tracks the month-over-month change in the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026. Core CPI excludes food and energy and measures inflation for all urban consumers. The markets resolve based on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released in September 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same official BLS Core CPI-U report for August 2026 as the resolution source, with consistent precision (one decimal place) and timing (September 11, 2026 release).Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report for August 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the official BLS Core CPI-U figure for August 2026, reported to one decimal place
  • Markets with exact percentage targets resolve to Yes only if the reported value exactly matches the target
  • Markets with threshold-based questions (e.g., 0.6% or more) resolve to Yes if the reported value meets or exceeds the threshold
  • If the BLS fails to release the August 2026 figure on schedule, the market resolves using the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Match Requirement: Markets specifying an exact percentage (e.g., 0.2%) will only resolve to Yes if the BLS reports that exact value. A reported value of 0.21% or 0.19% would resolve to No for that market
  • BLS Reporting Precision: The BLS reports Core CPI to one decimal place. No market should interpret or extrapolate beyond this precision (e.g., assuming 0.25% was rounded from 0.251%)
  • Data Release Failure: If the BLS fails to release the August 2026 figure on September 11, 2026, the market resolves using the most recent previous month with available data as of the scheduled release time
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for August 2026 on September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the August 2026 Core CPI market aggregates betting data across multiple platforms, showing real-time probabilities and volume. It tracks how traders on different venues price the likelihood of various inflation outcomes for that month. The view combines inputs from all participating markets, giving you a consensus signal and highlighting any notable divergences in expectations.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences arise because each platform hosts its own user base and liquidity pool, which can lead to varying risk appetites and information flows. Market design choices, fee structures, and participation rules also shape price discovery. As a result, Polymarket and Kalshi may show distinct probability curves for this market.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final figure will be drawn from the official government release for that month’s inflation data, and the market will close based on that announcement.

Several signals could influence this market before Sep 11, 2026. Key economic releases such as advanced consumer price indices, employment reports, and central bank statements will be closely watched, as they often reshape expectations for inflation and monetary policy. Any unexpected shifts in energy prices or supply chain conditions might also affect core CPI estimates. Additionally, geopolitical developments that impact global trade or consumer demand can introduce volatility. As Sep 11, 2026 approaches, traders will react to each new data point, potentially causing rapid movements in odds across platforms depending on how the information alters forecasts for the August 2026 Core CPI market.