TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the precise closing price of copper at a specific moment, reflecting immediate market conditions influenced by supply, demand, and global economic factors. The outcome depends on whether the price exceeds a set threshold at the exact closing time.
The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for copper on September 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. If the price exceeds any specified threshold (ranging from $6.39 to $7.56 USD/Lbs), the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For instance, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If data for the specified time is unavailable, the most recently published data is used to determine the outcome.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These forecasts are often compared to those from financial analysts and industry experts. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may rely on traditional modeling techniques while this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. Comparing this market’s implied probabilities to external forecasts can offer valuable insights into the potential range of outcomes for the copper price.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future copper price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing perspectives on the potential price of copper in 2026. The current market reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement price will be based on the copper price as determined by the London Metal Exchange (LME) at 5:00 PM EDT on September 18, 2026. The contract will pay out $1 per share if the actual copper price matches the market’s predicted price, and less if it does not. Traders should monitor the LME for the official settlement price to understand the final outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 18, 2026. Major economic indicators, such as global GDP growth and industrial production data, will play a role. Geopolitical events, including trade disputes or disruptions to copper supply chains, could also cause price fluctuations. Changes in government policies related to infrastructure spending or environmental regulations impacting copper mining could also move the market. Unexpected shifts in demand from key sectors like construction and electric vehicles will be closely watched by traders in this market.