TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 04d:00h:33m
$
This event tracks the precise closing price of copper at a specific future moment, reflecting real-time commodity valuation at that instant. The outcome depends entirely on whether the price exceeds a set threshold when markets close on the specified date and time.
The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for copper on November 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds—ranging from $6.39 to $7.56—the corresponding market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No". Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places, and the closing price represents the value at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data for the exact timestamp is unavailable, the most recent published data is used for resolution.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi often provides a different perspective than individual expert opinions. Do analysts generally predict copper prices will rise or fall by November 2026? How confident are they in that prediction? Comparing those answers to the probabilities reflected in this market can reveal interesting insights into market sentiment and potential discrepancies between expert forecasts and crowd-sourced predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the copper price will close above or below a specified level on Nov 6, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants regarding the likelihood of different outcomes, making it a dynamic and real-time indicator of market expectations. The current price indicates the probability of the copper price being above a certain threshold.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome determined by the closing price of copper on that date at 5:00 PM EST. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting of the London Metal Exchange (LME) official closing price. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual copper price at the time of resolution. The market's outcome is based on a publicly available and widely recognized benchmark for copper pricing.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of copper and, therefore, this market. Major economic indicators, such as global GDP growth, inflation rates, and industrial production data, will play a role. Geopolitical events, including trade disputes, political instability in major copper-producing countries, and supply chain disruptions, could also cause volatility. Unexpected changes in demand from key sectors like construction, manufacturing, and electric vehicles will also influence prices. Any news related to major copper mines or significant shifts in global inventory levels could move this market.