TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 7, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the copper futures price at a specific moment on July 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT using the CCN6 contract. Copper is an industrial metal whose price reflects global economic activity, manufacturing demand, and supply dynamics. The settlement uses the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick at the specified time.
Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for copper (CCN6 contract) on July 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $5.60 to $6.38 USD per pound, each in $0.02 increments. Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 10 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and collective trader judgment rather than individual expert opinions. In this market, traders are directly betting on copper's price at a specific moment, which can incorporate forward-looking sentiment faster than published analyst reports. Comparing the odds here to consensus forecasts from commodity analysts and financial institutions can reveal where the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different copper price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the probability traders assign to it, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. As new information emerges or market conditions shift, traders adjust their positions, and the prices update in real time to reflect the evolving consensus on where copper will trade at the specified time.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once the copper price at that specific moment becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by where copper is trading at the designated time, confirmed through established commodity price reporting. Once the event occurs and the price is officially recorded, this market will settle based on which outcome bracket the actual price falls into.
Major catalysts for copper price movement include shifts in global economic growth expectations, changes in mining supply or production disruptions, central bank policy decisions affecting currency valuations, and demand signals from construction and manufacturing sectors. Geopolitical tensions affecting major copper-producing regions, technological shifts in renewable energy adoption, and inflation data can all influence trader positioning. Additionally, broader commodity market trends, inventory reports, and unexpected supply shocks closer to the resolution date may trigger significant repricing in this market.