TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 3, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines whether the price of copper will exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment, reflecting potential influences from supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market speculation.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of a 1-minute candlestick for the CCU6 copper contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 03, 2026. The settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract 10 business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest cent, with the candlestick close defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the most recent published price is used. Each market has a unique threshold; if the settlement price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.'
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time aggregate of trader expectations. While analysts may publish target prices or trend assessments, this market reflects the collective betting sentiment of participants on Kalshi. Divergences between the two can signal emerging risks or shifts in market psychology not yet reflected in mainstream reports.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine pricing through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the most likely scenario as assessed by market participants. The platform’s pricing mechanism updates instantly with each trade, and volume of $46,285 indicates overall interest. Odds shift based on macro cues and commodity-specific developments.
This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. Traders will look to official pricing agencies and widely recognized financial publications to validate the final copper price, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could influence this market before resolution, including key economic announcements, shifts in global demand from major manufacturing regions, supply chain updates from major copper producers, and geopolitical developments affecting mining operations. Any unexpected volatility in commodity exchanges or currency fluctuations may also cause rapid repricing as traders adjust positions ahead of Aug 3, 2026.