TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 65%
- Kalshi
At least 65% - Kalshi
1W
News
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Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 17, 11:09 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks how much support Ned Lamont garners in the Connecticut Democratic gubernatorial primary. It focuses on the proportion of votes he receives among all valid votes cast. The outcome depends on whether his vote share meets or exceeds specific thresholds.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of valid votes Ned Lamont receives in the 2026 Connecticut Democratic gubernatorial primary. Each market has a distinct threshold ranging from 50% to 80%, and resolves to Yes only if Lamont's vote share falls within that specific range, inclusive of both endpoints. The percentage is calculated by dividing Lamont's total votes by all valid votes cast, then multiplying by 100 and rounding as specified. Only certified results are considered; preliminary figures, write-in votes (if certified), and invalid/spoiled ballots are treated according to standard election protocols. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by the deadline, all markets resolve to No. Recounts that adjust the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent official figure. Multiple voting rounds, such as ranked-choice voting, follow the specified round or default to the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the current implied chance reflects trader expectations for Ned Lamont’s vote share. This can diverge from polling averages for several reasons, including real-time betting dynamics, trader access to non-public information, and differences in how polls weight demographics or sample sizes. While polls provide a snapshot of voter intent, this market incorporates market mechanisms that may amplify or dampen certain signals. Monitoring both sources together offers a richer view of potential shifts in the race.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, pricing follows a continuous double auction where traders buy and sell contracts based on their outlook for Ned Lamont’s final vote percentage. The current top trade price shows the market’s collective forecast, adjusted for liquidity and recent trading activity. Volume of $37,675 indicates overall interest, while the 24-hour volume of $0 reflects recent momentum. This price mechanism allows rapid updates as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final percentage of votes cast for Ned Lamont will be compared to the market’s settled value, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process based on publicly available data from the state’s certified election results.
Key events that could shift this market include public polling releases, debates or media appearances by candidates, changes in campaign momentum or fundraising totals, and any emerging controversies or endorsements. Economic indicators, state-specific issues gaining attention, and voter turnout expectations also influence trader sentiment. Each development updates the perceived likelihood of different vote outcomes, driving price adjustments on Kalshi as participants reassess their positions.
