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Colorado Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will be the margin of victory in the Colorado Governor Republican Primary?

Volume:
$22,954

Marx <1%

 - Polymarket

Marx <1% - Polymarket

1W

News

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Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 28, 2026

Closed: Jul 28, 3:23 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Marx <1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Yes
polymarket

Kirkmeyer 1–2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Kirkmeyer 3–4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$905
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Kirkmeyer 2–3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$635
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Marx 2–3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$573
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Marx 3–4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Kirkmeyer <1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$499
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Marx 4%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$399
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Marx 1–2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$387
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Kirkmeyer 4%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
Total markets: 11

Description

The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds and traditional polling often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while this market reflects traders' probabilistic assessments informed by polls, campaign dynamics, fundraising, endorsements, and historical primary patterns. Markets typically incorporate new information faster than polls update, and they carry real financial stakes that incentivize accuracy. Comparing odds here to published polling averages can reveal whether traders expect a tighter or wider margin than current survey data suggests. This gap often signals where informed participants see gaps between headline polling and likely primary outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time odds for each margin outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different margin ranges, and the platform's pricing algorithm adjusts odds continuously based on order flow and liquidity. Higher trading volume typically narrows spreads and improves price precision. The market's current odds reflect the collective confidence of all participants; as new information emerges or campaign momentum shifts, traders adjust positions, moving prices to reflect updated expectations about the primary's likely margin.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly. Major endorsements from national GOP figures or Colorado party leadership often reshape trader expectations about frontrunner strength. Debate performances, campaign spending reports, and local media coverage can alter perceptions of momentum. Polling releases—especially late-stage surveys closer to primary day—typically trigger sharp repricing. Candidate gaffes, scandals, or unexpected withdrawals can dramatically narrow or widen the expected margin. Turnout forecasts and early voting data in the final weeks also influence trader positioning. Real-time election night results will drive the final price discovery as the actual margin becomes clear.