TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 40%
- Kalshi
At least 40% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 27, 9:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Phil Weiser is a candidate in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary election. These markets track what percentage of the vote he receives in that primary, with separate markets for different vote share thresholds.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Phil Weiser's certified percentage of valid votes cast in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market resolves Yes if his certified percentage meets or exceeds its specified threshold (30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, or 65%), and No otherwise. Resolution uses only official certified results, not preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple voting rounds occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, all markets resolve to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and polling averages often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while this market reflects traders' aggregated beliefs about the final outcome, incorporating news, campaign developments, and strategic positioning. Markets can move faster than polls and may price in information that hasn't yet appeared in survey data. Both sources are useful: polls show current voter preference, while market odds reveal what informed participants expect to happen on election day.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different vote-share outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract reflects a specific range or point estimate of Weiser's primary vote percentage, and the price of each contract moves based on supply and demand. Traders profit by correctly predicting his final vote share, and the market price at any moment represents the collective expectation of all active participants.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, following the Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary election. The outcome will be determined once official results are verified and publicly reported. Weiser's final vote percentage will be compared against the contract terms, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to holders of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official election reporting and any relevant regulatory announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Major campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Colorado Democrats, and shifts in voter registration or early voting patterns could all influence this market. Media coverage of Weiser's policy positions or political standing may trigger repricing. Polling releases specific to the primary race often cause significant movement. Additionally, unexpected developments in state politics, changes in candidate field composition, or external events affecting Democratic primary dynamics could reshape trader expectations about his vote share before the election.
