TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 40%
- Kalshi
At least 40% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 27, 9:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Michael Bennet's performance in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary will be measured by his certified share of the popular vote. Resolution uses official results from Colorado election authorities, including all valid votes cast and any write-in votes that appear in certified tallies.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Michael Bennet's certified percentage of valid votes cast in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market resolves to Yes if the certified percentage meets or exceeds its specified threshold (30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, or 65%), inclusive. Resolution uses only certified/official results, not preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple voting rounds occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, all markets resolve to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and traditional polling often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter preferences at a single moment, while prediction markets aggregate traders' beliefs about the final outcome, incorporating uncertainty and late-breaking developments. This market prices the probability that Bennet will cross the 40% threshold, which may differ from his current polling average. Traders factor in campaign momentum, endorsements, and turnout dynamics that polls may not yet reflect, making markets a complementary lens to survey data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the balance of buy and sell pressure; as more traders believe Bennet will exceed 40%, the price rises, and vice versa. Each share settles to either $1 or $0 at resolution, so the market price directly represents the implied probability traders assign to the outcome.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, once the Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary has concluded and results are verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether Michael Bennet receives at least 40% of the popular vote cast in that primary election. Traders holding shares will see their positions settle based on the final official vote tally reported by Colorado election authorities.
Major catalysts include polling releases showing shifts in Bennet's support, campaign announcements or endorsements, debate performances, and media coverage of the race. Turnout expectations and demographic shifts in Colorado's Democratic electorate could also influence trader positioning. As the primary date approaches, early voting data and internal campaign polling leaks may trigger sharp price movements. Unexpected candidate exits or consolidation of support behind rivals could significantly alter the probability of Bennet reaching the 40% threshold.
