TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Phil Weiser, 12-15%
- Kalshi
Phil Weiser, 12-15% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 27, 9:18 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the margin of victory for candidates in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary election scheduled for June 30, 2026. The margin is calculated as the difference in vote share or vote count between the winner and the runner-up, or between the loser and the leader if the tracked candidate loses.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated by comparing the votes or vote percentage received by the tracked candidate against the second-place finisher if the candidate wins, or against the first-place finisher if the candidate loses. For percentage-based margins, the calculation uses vote percentages; for raw vote margins, absolute vote counts are used. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or appears multiple times on the ballot, all votes for that candidate are aggregated. A winning candidate's margin is positive, a losing candidate's margin is negative, and a tie for first place results in a margin of zero. In uncontested races where a candidate runs unopposed, the margin is set to 100 percentage points or the total votes cast, depending on the margin type.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate a broader range of signals—campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and ground organization—alongside survey data. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, this market reflects real-money bets on the actual outcome, creating incentives for accuracy. Comparing current odds to recent polling can reveal whether the market is pricing in factors polls may lag on, or conversely, whether polls suggest the market has mispriced a candidate's chances.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different margin-of-victory ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the probability traders assign to that specific result, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents per share. Tighter bid-ask spreads typically indicate higher confidence and liquidity, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty or lower trading interest in that particular outcome band.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, once the Colorado Democratic governor primary election has concluded and results are verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the final vote-share margin between the top two finishers in the Democratic primary. Resolution depends on official election data becoming available and confirmed through established reporting channels, at which point the winning outcome contracts are paid out and all others expire worthless.
Major catalysts include candidate announcements, debate performances, endorsement shifts, and fundraising reports that reshape perceptions of electability. Polling releases—especially from high-quality firms—often trigger sharp repricing as traders update their probability estimates. Campaign controversies, voter turnout models, and demographic shifts in candidate support can also drive significant moves. As primary day approaches, early voting data and final pre-election surveys typically generate heightened trading activity and volatility in this market.
