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Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
polymarket

Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?

Volume:
$148,309

de la Espriella Win

 - Polymarket

de la Espriella Win - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

de la Espriella Win

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$36,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cepeda Castro 20%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,472
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cepeda Castro 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cepeda Castro 10-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,674
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cepeda Castro 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cepeda Castro 15-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Valencia Win

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,079
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks the margin of victory between the top two candidates in Colombia's first-round presidential election, specifically whether Iván Cepeda Castro will win by 5-10%. On Polymarket, the leading outcome holds 29.5%, while the probability that Abelardo de la Espriella wins the first round stands at 24.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official vote count from Colombia's National Civil Registry, with the margin defined as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two finishers. Watch for the official results on May 31, 2026, when Colombia holds its presidential election.

Polymarket

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory market on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $10,714. The total liquidity in this event stands at $148,309, reflecting trader interest in predicting the margin by which the leading candidate will win Colombia's first-round presidential vote. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, providing a live window into market sentiment on this pivotal political event.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations about the margin of victory, which often diverge from traditional polling averages. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate real-time information, historical election data, and trader conviction about final outcomes. Markets tend to be more dynamic and forward-looking than static polls, especially as election day approaches. For the Colombia 2026 first round, comparing market-implied probabilities to published polling can reveal whether traders expect polling leads to hold or shift before voting occurs.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, aligned with the official results of Colombia's first-round presidential election. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory announced by Colombia's electoral authority, which measures the percentage-point gap between the leading candidate and the runner-up. The outcome depends on final vote tallies and any official recount or certification processes. Traders should monitor official electoral announcements and any legal challenges that might affect the timing or confirmation of results before market settlement occurs.