TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination to represent Colorado's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, Manny Rutinel holds 75.0% probability of winning the nomination, while Shannon Bird stands at 19.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic sources including democrats.org, with the Democratic primary scheduled for June 30, 2026. Watch for candidate announcements and campaign momentum leading up to the June 30, 2026 primary election, as this date will determine the party's official nominee.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling due to different incentive structures. Markets reward accurate forecasts with financial gain, while polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment. The CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner market reflects traders' expectations about turnout, campaign momentum, and late-breaking developments that may not yet appear in public polls. Comparing market odds to recent polling averages can reveal where traders see gaps between current voter preference and likely primary outcomes, offering insight into which candidates traders believe have upside or downside potential.
The CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official results of the Colorado Democratic primary election for the 8th congressional district. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the Democratic party's nomination or wins the primary vote, depending on the specific contract terms. Traders should monitor official Colorado election authority announcements and Democratic Party statements as the primary date approaches to understand the exact resolution criteria and timing for final settlement.
Several catalysts could shift odds in the CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner market. Major campaign announcements, endorsements from party leaders or local figures, and debate performances can reshape trader expectations. Fundraising reports and media coverage of candidate viability will influence perceived momentum. Local and national political developments affecting Democratic primary dynamics may also move prices. Polling releases, candidate gaffes or scandals, and shifts in voter enthusiasm could trigger rapid repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously, so any significant news about candidates' campaign status, resources, or electability in the district may drive substantial volume and price changes before the Jun 30, 2026 resolution date.