TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination for Colorado's 4th congressional district House seat in 2026. On Kalshi, Eileen Laubacher holds 99.0% probability of winning the nomination, while Jenna Preston stands at 2.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic Party nomination results. The outcome will be settled following the 2026 nomination process leading up to the November 3, 2026 general election.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 CO-04 House seat. Each candidate outcome represents a potential nominee, and exactly one will secure the party's endorsement and ballot position for the general election.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately, often incorporating information faster than traditional polls. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets aggregate expectations about the actual nominating outcome. Markets can diverge from polls when traders believe polling may not capture late momentum, candidate viability, or delegate dynamics. Comparing Kalshi odds to recent public polling and analyst ratings provides a fuller picture of the race's trajectory and helps identify where market participants see opportunities or risks that surveys may have missed.
On Kalshi, the CO-04 Democratic nominee market is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability that each candidate becomes the Democratic nominee. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability. The top outcome currently reflects strong market conviction. As new information emerges—such as candidate announcements, debate performance, or endorsements—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. The final settlement price will resolve to either 100 cents if the outcome occurs or 0 cents if it does not.
The CO-04 Democratic nominee market on Kalshi resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official outcome of the Democratic nominating process for Colorado's 4th congressional district. This includes primary elections, caucuses, and any subsequent party procedures that officially designate the Democratic nominee for the general election. Once the Democratic Party formally recognizes the nominee, the market settles based on that official designation. Traders should monitor Colorado Democratic Party announcements and official election results as the resolution date approaches.
Several catalysts could shift odds in the CO-04 Democratic nominee market. Candidate announcements or withdrawals would immediately impact probabilities. Primary debate performances, endorsements from local or state party figures, and grassroots campaign momentum could move trader sentiment. Polling releases showing shifts in voter preference would likely trigger trading activity. Media coverage of candidate viability, fundraising totals, or organizational strength in the district may influence market prices. Changes in the broader Colorado political environment or national Democratic Party dynamics could also affect expectations. Traders monitor all these signals to adjust positions ahead of the nominating process.
