TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
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Resolved Jul 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 27, 9:17 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Melat Kiros's performance in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary will be measured by her certified share of the popular vote. Resolution uses official results from Colorado election authorities, including all valid votes cast and any write-in votes that appear in certified tallies.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Melat Kiros's certified percentage of valid votes cast in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market resolves to Yes if the certified percentage meets or exceeds its specified threshold (30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, or 60%), inclusive. Resolution uses only certified/official results, not preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple voting rounds occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, all markets resolve to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and polling averages often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter preference at a single moment, while markets aggregate traders' forward-looking expectations about actual vote totals, incorporating campaign momentum, turnout models, and late-breaking events. Markets can move faster than polls update, and traders may weight certain signals—such as fundraising or endorsements—differently than pollsters do. Comparing this market's odds to published polling averages helps identify where the prediction market is pricing in information that surveys may not yet reflect.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different vote-share outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the market's liquidity and uncertainty around the final result. As new information surfaces—polling releases, debate performances, or campaign announcements—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. Your profit or loss depends on whether the final vote share lands above or below your entry price when the market resolves.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the Democratic primary vote totals are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share for the candidate will be compared against the market's outcome thresholds to determine which positions settle in the money. Until that point, traders can buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the result.
Several catalysts could shift this market significantly before Jun 30, 2027. Major polling releases, debate performances, and endorsement announcements often trigger sharp price moves. Campaign spending, media coverage, and voter turnout models also influence trader positioning. Primary-specific events—such as candidate withdrawals, coalition shifts, or unexpected controversies—can reshape expectations overnight. Additionally, real-time vote reporting as early results come in will drive final price discovery. Traders monitor all these signals continuously, so this market can be volatile in the weeks and days leading up to resolution.
