TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
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37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Nebraska US Senate
- Kalshi
Nebraska US Senate - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:12h:45m
Will Nebraska US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Nebraska US Senate and Texas US Senate?
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Description
This event determines which Senate race between Nebraska and Texas had the closest contest in the November 2026 elections. Voters in both states will choose their preferred candidates, and the race with the smallest difference in votes between the top two candidates will be identified.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on which of the two Senate races—Nebraska or Texas—has the smallest margin of victory as of November 10, 2026. The margin of victory is defined as the absolute difference in vote share percentage between the first and second-place finishers, calculated using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results are unavailable by the deadline, preliminary results from source agencies with at least 95% of the expected vote will be used. In the event of a tie in margins between the two races, each tied option resolves to Yes, with the payout divided equally among the tied options.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and analyst predictions can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty, potentially signaling overlooked factors influencing the outcome of the Senate race. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, whether the Senate race in Nebraska or Texas will be closer. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time indication of the perceived likelihood of each scenario. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by which state – Nebraska or Texas – has a Senate race with a smaller margin of victory in the 2026 general election. The margin of victory will be calculated based on the official vote count reported by state election authorities. This market provides a way to forecast which of these two states will see a more competitive Senate contest.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 10, 2026. Major candidate announcements, significant shifts in polling data, and key fundraising reports are all likely to move the odds. Unexpected economic developments or national political trends could also play a role, as these factors often impact Senate races. Furthermore, any major controversies involving the candidates or changes in the political landscape within either Nebraska or Texas could lead to substantial shifts in market prices. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding how the market evolves.
