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419,363
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Kalshi:
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Montana US Senate
- Kalshi
Montana US Senate - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:12h:20m
Will Montana US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Montana US Senate and New Jersey US Senate?
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Description
This event identifies whether the Montana or New Jersey Senate race had the narrower contest in the November 2026 elections. The outcome depends on which state's voters produced the smallest vote difference between the leading candidates.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on which of the two Senate races—Montana or New Jersey—has the smallest margin of victory as of November 10, 2026. The margin of victory is defined as the absolute difference in vote share percentage between the first and second-place finishers, calculated using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results are unavailable by the deadline, preliminary results from source agencies with at least 95% of the expected vote will be used. In the event of a tie in margins between the two races, each tied option resolves to Yes, with the payout divided equally among the tied options.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Montana or New Jersey Senate race. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals putting their money behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the market's implied probabilities and analyst predictions can highlight areas of disagreement or differing interpretations of available information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming your own assessment of the race.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – Montana or New Jersey having the closer Senate race. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting traders' beliefs about the probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the fair probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and evolving sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, it will be determined which state, Montana or New Jersey, has a Senate race with a smaller margin of victory as reported by major news outlets. The resolution will be based on the official vote counts and any subsequent recounts or legal challenges that are finalized and widely reported. The winning outcome will be the state with the closest Senate race.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major shifts in polling data for either Montana or New Jersey would likely impact trader sentiment. Significant fundraising announcements or endorsements from prominent figures could also influence the market. Unexpected news events related to the candidates, such as controversies or policy changes, could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, any developments affecting voter turnout or early voting trends could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities for the Montana or New Jersey Senate race.
