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South Carolina US Senate
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South Carolina US Senate - Kalshi
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Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:11h:13m
Will South Carolina US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Florida US Senate (special election) and South Carolina US Senate?
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Description
This event identifies which Senate race—Florida's special election or South Carolina's regular election—had the closest result in November 2026. The determination is made by comparing the vote differences between the top two candidates in each race.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on which of the two Senate races—Florida's special election or South Carolina's regular election—has the smallest margin of victory as of November 10, 2026. The margin of victory is defined as the absolute difference in vote share percentage between the first and second-place finishers, calculated using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results are unavailable by the deadline, preliminary results from source agencies with at least 95% of the expected vote will be used. In the event of a tie in margins between the two races, each tied option resolves to Yes, with the payout divided equally among the tied options.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to many analyst forecasts. While traditional political analysis often relies on polling data and expert opinions, this market aggregates the views of a diverse range of participants who are putting their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the market's implied probabilities and those offered by analysts can highlight areas where the crowd believes information is being undervalued or misinterpreted. It’s important to note that both approaches have strengths and weaknesses, and a comprehensive understanding requires considering both.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Florida and South Carolina Senate races. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each scenario.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by which party controls each Senate seat following the 2026 general election. The results will be verified against credible public sources, such as official election results released by state election authorities and reported by major news organizations. The market will settle based on the official outcome of the Senate elections in Florida and South Carolina.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and Nov 10, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as candidate announcements, fundraising totals, and key endorsements, could shift the odds. Significant shifts in polling data, particularly in these closely contested states, would also likely cause price movements. Unexpected economic news or national political events could also influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the market. Finally, any major controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to substantial changes in the perceived probabilities.
