TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 5, 10:47 AM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Clear Secure Inc. will report more than 8.2 million active Clear Plus members during the second quarter of 2026. The leading outcome currently stands at 84.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by Clear Secure Inc.'s official Q2 2026 earnings report and membership disclosures. Watch for the company's quarterly earnings announcement on or around September 3, 2026, when Q2 membership figures will be publicly released.
Resolution depends on Clear Secure Inc.'s official Q2 2026 report of active Clear Plus members. Each threshold from 8.2 million through 8.8 million (in increments ranging from 100,000 to 200,000 members) constitutes a separate resolution point. The reported active Clear Plus members figure is compared against each threshold; if the reported figure exceeds a given threshold, that market resolves to Yes. All thresholds are evaluated independently based on the single reported active Clear Plus members figure.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader expectations about Clear+ membership levels, while analyst forecasts typically rely on historical growth trends, company guidance, and industry reports. Prediction markets aggregate distributed information from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate, whereas analyst estimates may lag market developments or reflect institutional biases. Comparing the current market probability against published analyst consensus can reveal whether traders expect membership growth to exceed or fall short of professional expectations, highlighting areas of agreement or divergence in growth outlook.
The Clear+ members in Q2 market resolves on Sep 3, 2026. Resolution depends on Clear Secure Inc.'s official Q2 2026 financial disclosures and membership reports. The market will settle affirmatively if reported active Clear+ members exceed 8.8 million, or negatively if they fall at or below that threshold. Traders should monitor company earnings announcements, investor presentations, and regulatory filings as the resolution date approaches to track actual membership figures and adjust positions accordingly.
Key catalysts for Clear+ members in Q2 include Clear Secure's quarterly earnings reports, management guidance on membership growth, changes in airport partnerships or expansion announcements, competitive pressures from rival identity verification services, and macroeconomic factors affecting travel demand. Regulatory developments affecting airport security or biometric screening could also influence adoption. Additionally, marketing campaigns, pricing changes, and integration with new travel platforms may drive membership acquisition. Traders should track company press releases, industry news, and travel trends to anticipate movements in market pricing ahead of Q2 resolution.