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2,388,728,490

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400,720

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30,097

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Claude Code Commits hit ___ by June 30?
polymarket

Claude Code Commits hit ___ by June 30?

Volume:
$9,020

↑ 600.0k

 - Polymarket

↑ 600.0k - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ 600.0k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$3,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 550.0k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 700.0k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 750.0k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 650.0k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ 350.0k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ 400.0k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ 450.0k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether Claude Code Commits will reach 700,000 or higher on any day through June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that commits will hit this threshold—stands at 98.5%. The resolution source is the Claude Code Commits Tracker at claude-commits.polymarket.com, which displays underlying data from SemiAnalysis. Watch for daily commit figures published on the tracker; the market resolves as soon as the 700k figure is reached or when the final daily figure for June 30, 2026 is published, whichever comes first.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the daily Claude Code Commits figure is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified figure for any date between market creation and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only daily Claude Code Commits figures displayed on the Claude Code Commits Tracker (claude-commits.polymarket.com) will be considered. The resolution source displays underlying data by SemiAnalysis. Commit figures will be used exactly as published by the resolution source, without rounding. This market will resolve as soon as the specified figure has been reached, or as soon as the daily figure for the last date within the specified timeframe has been published and the specified figure has not been reached. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified timeframe (ET), this market will resolve according to the data available at that time. Revisions made to published daily Claude Code Commits figures before the daily figure for the last date within the specified timeframe has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published daily Claude Code Commits figure from resolving this market. Revisions made after the daily figure for the last date within the specified timeframe has been published will not be considered. This market will resolve solely according to the daily Claude Code Commits data via SemiAnalysis displayed on the Claude Code Commits Tracker at claude-commits.polymarket.com.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Claude Code Commits prediction market on Polymarket. It displays the current implied probability that Claude will reach the specified commit threshold by Jun 30, 2026, along with 24-hour trading volume of $499 and total market volume of $9,020. Users can monitor price movements, view historical odds trends, and observe how market sentiment shifts as new information about Claude's development velocity emerges. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect active trader positions and consensus expectations around this AI development milestone.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader conviction and aggregate information from the developer community, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on historical commit rates and published roadmaps, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking signals from engineers and insiders who trade based on actual development momentum. The market-implied probability captures dynamic expectations that adjust faster than quarterly analyst reports. Comparing Polymarket odds to published estimates from AI research firms or developer surveys can reveal whether the market is pricing in acceleration or deceleration relative to expert consensus.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the actual number of Claude code commits will be measured against the specified threshold. Resolution occurs after the deadline passes and verified commit data becomes available. The outcome is binary: if the cumulative commit count meets or exceeds the target, the "Yes" outcome wins; otherwise, "No" prevails. Traders should monitor official Claude repository activity and any announcements from Anthropic regarding development milestones in the months leading up to resolution.

Key catalysts include Anthropic announcements about new model releases, hiring expansions, or shifts in development priorities that would accelerate or slow commit velocity. Public statements from leadership regarding product roadmaps and engineering focus directly influence trader expectations. Major AI breakthroughs or competitive announcements from rivals may prompt Anthropic to reallocate engineering resources. Quarterly updates on Claude's capabilities, new feature launches, or infrastructure investments signal development intensity. Unexpected staffing changes, funding rounds, or strategic partnerships could reshape commit patterns. Real-time GitHub activity and commit frequency trends provide ongoing signals that traders monitor to adjust positions ahead of Jun 30, 2026.