TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Reform UK, ≥10%
- Kalshi
Reform UK, ≥10% - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 9:58 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A by-election will be held in the Clacton constituency on July 8, 2026. These markets assess whether Reform UK's margin of victory will fall within specified thresholds, where margin is calculated as the difference between Reform UK's vote share (or vote count) and that of the runner-up if Reform UK wins, or the leading candidate if Reform UK loses.
Kalshi
The margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election shall be calculated based on the applicable margin type: percentage points, raw votes, or electoral votes. If Reform UK wins, the margin equals Reform UK's result minus the second-place finisher's result. If Reform UK loses, the margin is negative and equals Reform UK's result minus the first-place finisher's result. In case of a tie for first place, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where Reform UK is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast. All votes attributable to Reform UK, including those cast under multiple party labels, shall be summed together. Margin calculations apply no rounding; for consecutive ranges, the lower bound is inclusive and the upper bound is exclusive (e.g., a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range, not 5-6%). Each market resolves to Yes if the calculated margin falls within its specified threshold range from the lower bound up to but not including 100%.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional polling or analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different incentive structures. Traders in this market have financial skin in the game, which can sharpen accuracy on margin outcomes where public polling may be sparse or outdated. Conversely, professional analysts may incorporate qualitative factors or historical precedent that markets initially overlook. Comparing this market's odds to published forecasts from psephologists or news organizations can reveal where consensus breaks down and highlight which groups expect a tighter or wider victory.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and offers for outcome shares. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bucket—representing a specific margin range—has its own price, and the spread between buy and sell orders reflects market uncertainty. As new information arrives, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. Tighter spreads indicate high confidence in a particular outcome, while wider spreads signal disagreement or low liquidity around that margin threshold.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2027, once the by-election results are finalized and verified against credible public sources. The outcome will be determined by the official margin of victory—the difference in votes between the winning candidate and the runner-up. Resolution hinges on the actual electoral result announced by the Electoral Commission or relevant UK authorities, ensuring that the market settles fairly based on the real-world event.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market. New constituency-level polling releases often trigger sharp repricing, especially if they show unexpected momentum for a challenger. Campaign events, candidate gaffes, or endorsements from prominent figures can sway trader sentiment. National political developments—such as shifts in party leadership or major policy announcements—may also influence local expectations. Media coverage highlighting turnout patterns or demographic shifts in Clacton could prompt traders to adjust their margin forecasts. Finally, early voting data or exit polls closer to election day typically generate the most volatile price movements.
