TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 20%
- Kalshi
At least 20% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Count Binface Party is a satirical political party in the UK known for humorous candidacies. These markets track what percentage of the vote Count Binface Party receives in the 2026 Clacton by-election, with separate markets for different vote share thresholds.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the certified percentage of popular votes received by Count Binface Party in the 2026 Clacton by-election, calculated as (total votes for the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market resolves to Yes if the certified percentage meets or exceeds its specified threshold (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, or 30%). Only certified official results are used; preliminary results do not apply. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If the election involves multiple voting rounds (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration date, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount occurs before expiration and changes the certified percentage, the most recent certified percentage determines the resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from diverse traders rather than relying on a single polling methodology or expert opinion. This market prices the likelihood of Binface reaching the 5% threshold, which may reflect factors analysts weight differently—such as campaign momentum, voter enthusiasm, or tactical voting patterns. Comparing current odds to published polling and pundit commentary can reveal where the market sees upside or downside risk that conventional forecasters may have missed or underweighted.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the last executed trade price and the spread between buy and sell orders on the platform's book. As new information surfaces—such as campaign events, local polling, or shifts in voter sentiment—traders adjust their bids and offers, moving the price to reflect updated conviction about whether Binface will cross the 5% vote-share threshold.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2027, once the Clacton by-election results are finalized and verified. The outcome is determined by the official vote share reported for Count Binface Party in that constituency. If the party receives 5% or more of the popular vote, the yes outcome wins; below that threshold, the no outcome prevails. Resolution is confirmed once the result is verifiable from credible public reporting of the election outcome.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Local polling releases showing Binface's support trending up or down would trigger immediate repricing. Campaign announcements, media coverage, or high-profile endorsements could alter trader expectations about turnout and vote concentration in Clacton. Broader political developments—such as shifts in national sentiment toward independent or protest candidates—may also influence how traders assess the 5% threshold. Finally, candidate withdrawals, debate performances, or tactical voting calls from other parties could reshape the competitive landscape and move this market materially.
