TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Reclaim Party
- Kalshi
Reclaim Party - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 9:57 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A by-election will be held in Clacton on August 13, 2026, to fill a vacant parliamentary seat. This market tracks which candidate or party finishes in fourth place based on certified election results.
Kalshi
Ranking in the 2026 Clacton by-election is determined by the voting system employed. Under plurality voting, rank is based on vote count or percentage. For ranked choice voting, rank is determined by elimination order, with the runner-up eliminated in the final round for second place. In two-round systems, rank is based on final round results if the election proceeds to a second round; otherwise, first-round totals determine ranking. Under proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. If two or more entities tie for fourth place, the market resolves proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving fourth place resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets resolve to NO.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and live trader positioning. While pollsters and political analysts rely on survey data and historical models, this market aggregates the distributed knowledge of participants actively wagering on outcomes. Markets typically react faster to breaking news and shifting campaign dynamics than published forecasts, though both sources can inform a comprehensive view of the race. Comparing the two reveals where expert consensus and market sentiment align or diverge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing fourth-place outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the market's implied probability, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-100 based on supply and demand. Traders profit by correctly predicting the fourth-place finisher, and the price discovery process ensures that the market price embeds available information about candidate viability and polling trends in real time.
This market resolves around Aug 13, 2027, once the Clacton by-election results are finalized and verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official candidate rankings released by the Electoral Commission and confirmed through established news reporting. Until that point, prices will fluctuate based on polling updates, campaign developments, and trader expectations about which candidates are most likely to secure the fourth position in the final vote tally.
Major polling releases showing shifts in candidate support could significantly move prices, as could campaign announcements, candidate withdrawals, or high-profile endorsements. Media coverage highlighting underdog or frontrunner candidates may trigger repricing as traders reassess fourth-place odds. Tactical voting patterns, local issues gaining national attention, and turnout forecasts also influence trader positioning. Closer to election day, early voting data and final campaign events typically drive the most volatile price movements as the market converges toward the actual result.
