TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Rejoin EU
- Kalshi
Rejoin EU - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 9:55 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A by-election will be held in Clacton on August 13, 2026, to fill a vacant parliamentary seat. This market tracks which candidate or party finishes in third place based on certified election results.
Kalshi
Ranking in the 2026 Clacton by-election is determined by the voting system employed. Under plurality voting, rank is based on vote count or percentage. For ranked choice voting, rank is determined by elimination order, with the runner-up eliminated in the final round for second place. In two-round systems, rank is based on final round results if the election proceeds to a second round; otherwise, first-round totals determine ranking. Under proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. If two or more entities tie for third place, the market resolves proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving third place resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets resolve to NO.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies. Analysts typically rely on polling data, historical voting patterns, and qualitative judgment, while this market aggregates the collective bets of traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Prediction markets can sometimes move ahead of published polls when new campaign events occur or insider information surfaces. Comparing the odds here to recent analyst commentary and polling aggregates can reveal where the market sees opportunities or risks that conventional forecasters may have missed or underweighted.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability that the third-place candidate will be the one specified in the market terms. As new trades execute, the price adjusts in real time based on supply and demand. Traders can enter limit or market orders, and the spread between bid and ask prices tightens or widens depending on trading activity and conviction levels among participants.
This market resolves around Aug 13, 2027, once the Clacton by-election results are finalized and verified. The outcome is determined by the official election results, confirming which candidate finishes in third place. Resolution occurs after all votes are counted and the result is announced through credible public reporting. Traders holding positions at resolution will be settled based on whether their prediction matched the verified outcome.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before Aug 13, 2027. Major campaign announcements, candidate withdrawals, or high-profile endorsements may reshape voter expectations and alter third-place probabilities. Polling releases, debate performances, and local media coverage can all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected scandals or gaffes involving candidates could rapidly reprrice the market. Tactical voting patterns or last-minute campaign pivots may also emerge as election day approaches. Real-time tracking of these developments helps traders anticipate market moves and adjust positions accordingly.
