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Science and Technology
China strategic oil inventories in Q3 2026
predict
kalshi

What will China’s strategic oil inventories be in Q3 2026?

Total volume:
$127
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$35,869
0%
Open interest:
$19
0%

-0.8%–0.0%

 - Predict

-0.8%–0.0% - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 17, 2026

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 1% Low liquidity 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

-0.8%–0.0%

Trade
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$173
$34
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 1,450 million barrels

Trade
56%
Yes 60¢No 49¢
9¢
N/A
$19
0%
0%
$19
2mo 1w 1d
active
predict

0.8%–1.6%

Trade
50%
Yes 99.7¢No 99.7¢
99.4¢
$35,649
$53
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

0.0%–0.8%

Trade
20%
11%
Yes 24.5¢No 83.7¢
8.2¢
$47
$21
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

<-2.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

-2.4%– -1.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

-1.6%– -0.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

1.6%–2.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

2.4%–3.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

3.2%–4.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
predict

4.0%+

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 1,400 million barrels

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 1,500 million barrels

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 1,550 million barrels

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 1,600 million barrels

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group focuses on predicting China's strategic oil inventories levels for Q3 2026 and Japan's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate. The China inventory markets rely on U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates, while the Japan GDP markets use data from Japan's Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different market types and resolution sourcesHero tip: Treat these as separate bets — the Japan GDP market resolves based on official Japanese government statistics with specific rounding and bracket rules, while the China inventory market uses U.S. EIA estimates with multiple overlapping threshold conditions that all trigger the same 'Yes' outcome

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Range-bound binary market for Japan Q3 2026 GDP growth with 11 distinct percentage ranges (-2.4% to 4.0+%), using Japan Cabinet Office's first preliminary estimate released November 16, 2026, with specific rules for rounding, tie-breaking, and fallback scenarios
  • Kalshi: Threshold-based binary market for China Q3 2026 strategic oil inventories where any estimate above 1,400 million barrels triggers a 'Yes' outcome, with multiple overlapping thresholds (1,400M, 1,450M, 1,500M, etc.) all resolving to the same 'Yes' outcome
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first published estimate of China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Global Energy Security Data, specifically Table 1, “Estimated Strategic Oil Inventories for Select Countries.” The estimate includes both government-held and commercial inventories in China. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 1,400 to 1,600 million barrels); if the published value exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes. No subsequent revisions to the estimate will affect resolution, ensuring consistency based on the initial reported figure.

Predict

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the China oil reserves market shows aggregated predictions from multiple venues, letting you see how traders across platforms view likely changes in strategic oil inventories. It displays current odds, trading volume of $127, and 24-hour volume of $0, offering a consensus view of expectations for Q3 2026. This real-time snapshot helps users compare sentiment and spot trends in the China oil reserves market.

On Kalshi, odds reflect collective trader sentiment and may diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which often incorporate macro models and policy outlooks. Prediction markets can price in rapid shifts in supply, demand, or geopolitical risk faster than periodic reports. While analysts may emphasize seasonal trends, this market captures real-time betting on inventory levels, sometimes highlighting risks or opportunities sooner.

On Predict and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and market design. Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more institutional participants focusing on long-term energy policies, while another could reflect retail interest in short-term geopolitical headlines. These dynamics often create a spread of 43.8 between the two venues, especially when new data emerges.

This market resolves around Nov 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official inventory figures for Q3 2026 are published and verified against credible public sources. The final determination will reflect the reported strategic oil stock levels for that period, closing all positions based on the verified number.

Key signals include official Chinese government announcements on reserve adjustments, unexpected disruptions in global oil supply chains, and shifts in demand due to economic growth or policy changes. Reports on refinery activity, storage capacity updates, and energy trade balances can also sway this market. Traders will watch geopolitical developments and commodity price swings, as these often preview changes in inventory management strategies.