TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026
kalshi

China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026

Volume:
$9,524

Above 48.0

 - Kalshi

Above 48.0 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 31, 2026

Closed: May 30, 9:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 48.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,900
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 48.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,604
N/A
N/A
$725
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 49.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,327
N/A
N/A
$1,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 49.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,151
N/A
N/A
$472
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 47.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
$350
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 47.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$661
N/A
N/A
$430
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 50.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$721
N/A
N/A
$510
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 53.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
$283
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 52.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 50.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$282
N/A
N/A
$276
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 51.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 51.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 53.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 54.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 52.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether China's National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI will exceed 47.5 in May 2026, a key gauge of factory-sector health and economic momentum. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—PMI above 47.5—stands at 99.0%. The market resolves based on the official NBS manufacturing PMI reading for May 2026, published by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Watch for the official PMI release scheduled for June 7, 2026, which will determine the final settlement.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, shortly after the National Bureau of Statistics publishes China's official manufacturing PMI for May 2026. Resolution hinges on whether the reported index level exceeds 48.0 or not. The NBS typically releases this data in the first week of the following month, making early June the expected settlement window. Traders should monitor official NBS announcements and economic calendars for the precise release timing.

Key catalysts include Chinese government stimulus or monetary policy shifts, trade developments affecting export demand, and global manufacturing indices signaling broader economic health. Domestic credit conditions, property sector stability, and employment data will influence factory activity. International factors such as US tariff policy, European demand, and commodity prices also matter significantly. Monthly economic releases, central bank guidance, and geopolitical events through May 2026 will drive trader positioning and market odds as the resolution date approaches.