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China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
polymarket

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

Volume:
$91,853

4.3-4.6%

 - Polymarket

4.3-4.6% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:23 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4.3-4.6%

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39,074
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

4.6-4.9%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.0-4.3%

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,872
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.9-5.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.7-4.0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.2-5.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,853
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.4-3.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the China GDP growth market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $11,381, and the total volume traded to date is $87,156. The dashboard allows users to see how the probabilities of different growth outcomes are shifting over time, providing insight into market sentiment. It’s a central hub for anyone interested in understanding how predictions about China’s economic performance are evolving. This is a dynamic view of what traders believe about future economic conditions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth. These expectations are often compared to those of traditional economic analysts and polling data. While analyst forecasts are based on models and economic indicators, this market represents a collective intelligence view, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or the incorporation of unforeseen events. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming an overall assessment of potential economic outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different GDP growth outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations. The most actively traded outcomes currently indicate a focus on growth rates between 4.3% and 4.6%.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Q3 2026 GDP growth rate for China is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China will be the determining factor. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in the market’s resolution, confirming whether their predictions were accurate. This provides a clear and objective assessment of the market’s predictive power.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major shifts in Chinese government policy, unexpected global economic shocks, or significant changes in domestic demand could all influence predictions. Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes or international conflicts, could also play a role. Furthermore, key economic indicators released prior to Q3 2026, like manufacturing data or consumer spending figures, will likely impact trading activity and adjust the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential price movements.