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ChatGPT App Downloads in August
kalshi

What will be the ChatGPT app download performance in August?

Volume:
$7,316

Above 105

 - Kalshi

Above 105 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 6, 10:29 PM EST

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Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 105

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,986
N/A
N/A
$2,166
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 110

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$941
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$452
N/A
N/A
$299
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 95

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 115

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,862
N/A
N/A
$760
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the performance of the ChatGPT app's download numbers for August 2026, comparing them to the same month in the previous year. The focus is on whether the year-over-year growth exceeds specific thresholds, indicating varying levels of success or demand for the app during that period.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for year-over-year growth in ChatGPT app downloads for August 2026, all based on an index where 100 represents equal downloads compared to August of the prior year. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the Carbon Arc-reported index for August 2026 exceeds its specific threshold—95, 100, 105, 110, or 115—signifying varying degrees of growth above the prior year. The resolution relies solely on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for August 2026, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. The index measures percentage growth or decline relative to the same month last year, where values above 100 denote growth and below 100 denote decline. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with or endorsement by the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ChatGPT August downloads market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $33. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different download ranges, giving you a live view of market sentiment and activity for this specific prediction.

Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. Analysts may incorporate broader trends and longer-term projections, while traders in this market focus on short-term signals and recent performance metrics. The gap between the two can highlight areas of consensus or divergence in expectations for August.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate wisdom of participants. The market price adjusts dynamically based on new information, trading volume of $7,316, and shifts in trader confidence, offering a real-time probability estimate unique to Kalshi.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released data or widely accepted sources, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants.