TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Economics
Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?
polymarket

Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?

Volume:
$26,985

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 4:51 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50+ bps increase

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps increase

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps decrease

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Colombia's central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by at least 50 basis points at its July meeting. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a 50+ basis point increase—currently stands at 83.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official statement from the Central Bank of Colombia following its July 31, 2026 meeting, as published on the bank's official calendar. Watch for the central bank's rate decision announcement on July 31, 2026, which will settle this contract.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Central Bank of Colombia's July monetary policy decision on Polymarket. The market monitors whether the central bank will hold its policy interest rate steady or adjust it. You can view live probability estimates, historical price movements, and current trading volume of $26,985 across all outcomes. The dashboard updates continuously as traders place bets, giving you a snapshot of market sentiment on Colombia's monetary stance heading into the July meeting.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations, which often differ from traditional economist surveys. While analyst consensus typically emphasizes backward-looking inflation data and GDP growth, prediction markets price in forward-looking sentiment and tail risks. Analysts may issue point forecasts, whereas markets express probability ranges. Comparing the two reveals whether professional economists and active traders align on the likelihood of a rate hold versus a cut or hike in July. Market odds tend to update faster when new economic data arrives.

The market resolves on Jul 31, 2026, following the Central Bank of Colombia's official July monetary policy announcement. Resolution is determined by the central bank's actual decision on the policy interest rate. The outcome will be confirmed through official central bank communications and financial news sources. Until that date, traders can continue to buy and sell positions based on evolving economic data, inflation reports, and market expectations. The resolution process is final once the central bank's decision is publicly announced.

Key catalysts include Colombia's inflation reports, which directly influence rate-setting decisions. Employment data, GDP growth figures, and currency movements against the US dollar can shift market odds significantly. Global monetary policy shifts, particularly US Federal Reserve actions, often ripple through emerging-market central banks. Political statements from central bank officials or government economic advisors may hint at policy direction. Oil price volatility matters for Colombia's export-dependent economy. Any unexpected economic shocks or financial stability concerns could prompt rapid repricing of the July decision odds on Polymarket.