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Canada unemployment rate in September
kalshi

What will Canada’s unemployment rate be?

Volume:
$1,926

Above 6.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 6.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 6.4%

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,126
N/A
N/A
$714
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.3%

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$331
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.5%

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
$465
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.6%

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.0%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.1%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.2%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.7%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.8%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.9%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks Canada's unemployment rate for a specific month, offering multiple thresholds to assess economic health. Participants can evaluate whether the rate exceeds various percentage points, reflecting different levels of labor market stress. The outcome depends on official statistics released after the reporting period.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether Canada's official unemployment rate for September 2026 exceeds any of the specified threshold values ranging from 6.0% to 6.9%. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, and if the reported rate surpasses that threshold, the associated market resolves to Yes. The final determination hinges on the authoritative unemployment data published by Statistics Canada for the specified month. No adjustments or interpretations are applied—only the raw numerical comparison between the published rate and each threshold matters.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the real-time odds of various outcomes for the Canadian unemployment rate. You’ll find the current price, a history of price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $627. The total volume traded on this market is $1,926. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new economic data becomes available. The dashboard provides a clear visual representation of where traders believe the Canadian unemployment rate will land.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the Canadian economy. While many analysts predict a continued, gradual increase in the unemployment rate, this market demonstrates a wider range of expectations. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or expert opinions, as markets incorporate a broader spectrum of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This dynamic allows for a potentially more nuanced and responsive view of future economic conditions than static forecasts alone.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Canadian unemployment rate. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on new information and trader activity, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the eventual unemployment rate and capitalizing on price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Canadian unemployment rate for September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official data released by Statistics Canada will serve as the definitive source for determining the winning outcome. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on any pre-release information or economic indicators. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on widely accepted statistical data.

Several key economic signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in Canadian job creation numbers, shifts in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, and broader global economic trends are all potential catalysts. Any news regarding major industry layoffs or significant government economic interventions could also move the market. Furthermore, revisions to previous unemployment rate data can influence trader sentiment and lead to price adjustments in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.