TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
28% - 32%
- Kalshi
28% - 32% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:50 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks what share of the vote Xavier Becerra will receive in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Becerra captures between 20% and 24% of the popular vote—stands at 20.0%, while the outcome for 24% to 28% of the vote is at 18.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage from the California gubernatorial primary, as reported by official election authorities. Watch for the primary election results on June 2, 2026, which will determine the final vote share and settle the market.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Xavier Becerra's certified vote percentage in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, divided into nine distinct ranges from below 4% to 32% or higher. Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, rounded to two decimal places. Resolution uses only certified official results, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if appearing in certified results; invalid or spoiled ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available, all outcomes resolve to No. Recounts changing the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect trader expectations for Becerra's primary vote share, which may diverge from traditional polling averages depending on market participants' interpretation of recent campaign developments and voter sentiment. While polls capture a snapshot of voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate ongoing information flow and financial incentives for accuracy. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in dynamics—such as campaign momentum or demographic shifts—that polls may lag in capturing.
Key catalysts include major campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent California figures, and shifts in voter registration or turnout models. Economic developments, state policy controversies, and national political events could reshape primary dynamics. Media coverage of Becerra's record and opponent positioning will influence trader expectations. Polling releases and internal campaign data leaks often trigger sharp price moves. Closer to Jun 2, 2027, early voting patterns and last-minute campaign surges typically drive final repricing as traders adjust for emerging ground-game signals.
