TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
California governor primary: which counties will Tom Steyer win?
kalshi

California governor primary: which counties will Tom Steyer win?

Volume:
$27,502

San Francisco

 - Kalshi

San Francisco - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:53 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Francisco

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,781
N/A
N/A
$5,117
8mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Marin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,169
N/A
N/A
$764
8mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Alameda

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,661
N/A
N/A
$1,657
8mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Santa Cruz

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,294
N/A
N/A
$741
8mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Santa Barbara

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$885
N/A
N/A
$446
8mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Santa Clara

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,745
N/A
N/A
$6,214
8mo 5d
No
kalshi

San Mateo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,899
N/A
N/A
$636
8mo 5d
No
kalshi

Napa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$947
N/A
N/A
$441
8mo 5d
No
kalshi

Sonoma

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$615
N/A
N/A
$546
8mo 5d
No
kalshi

Contra Costa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
$344
8mo 5d
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Tom Steyer will win individual counties in the first round of the 2026 California gubernatorial election, focusing on northern and central coastal regions. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Steyer winning San Francisco County—stands at 53.0%, while his chances in San Mateo County are at 31.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results from the first round of the 2026 California gubernatorial election scheduled for June 2, 2026. Watch the primary election results on that date to see how Steyer performs across these Bay Area counties.

Kalshi

Tom Steyer's success in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is measured by his ability to win a plurality of votes in individual counties during the June primary election. A win in any county means receiving more votes than any other candidate in that jurisdiction. The event tracks his performance across San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Cruz, Sonoma, Napa, and Santa Barbara counties, with each county outcome resolving independently based on official primary results.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027, following the California governor primary election. Resolution is determined by official county-level results reported by California election authorities. Each county outcome settles independently based on whether Tom Steyer finishes first in that county's vote count. Traders should monitor official state election data and any recounts or certification delays that may affect final determination and settlement timing.

Key catalysts include Steyer's campaign spending and advertising intensity in specific counties, endorsements from local officials, debate performance, and shifts in voter registration or early-voting patterns. Demographic trends, turnout models, and polling releases for individual counties can trigger sharp repricing. Media coverage of Steyer's viability and field consolidation also matter; if other candidates drop out or endorse rivals, county-level support may shift dramatically. Real-time election night results and mail-in ballot counts will drive final moves as the primary approaches.