TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer
- Kalshi
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:18 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the 2026 California gubernatorial primary will produce a specific top-three finishing order: Steve Hilton in first place, Xavier Becerra in second, and Tom Steyer in third. On Kalshi, the exact outcome currently stands at 99.8%, while an alternative ordering is priced at 0.3%. Resolution will be determined by the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. Watch for the primary election results on or around July 16, 2026, when the actual vote totals will be certified and determine how this market settles.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election, specifically the exact placement of the top three finishers. The market covers all possible permutations of three candidates selected from the four specified candidates (Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, and Bianco), with each outcome representing a unique first-second-third finishing order. Resolution requires an exact match to the specified ranking; any deviation results in that market resolving to No.
Frequently asked questions
The California governor primary: top 3 market resolves on Jul 16, 2026, following the state's gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official final vote tallies and candidate rankings released by California election authorities. The market will settle based on which three candidates receive the highest vote totals in the primary, establishing the definitive top-three finishing order. Traders should monitor official state election results and any official announcements from Kalshi regarding final outcome determination to understand exactly how their positions will be settled.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the California governor primary top three before Jul 16, 2026. Major campaign announcements, candidate endorsements from prominent state or national figures, and significant fundraising milestones often trigger price movements. Debate performances, media coverage of candidate gaffes or achievements, and shifts in voter sentiment captured by new polling can reshape market expectations. Changes in candidate viability—such as a frontrunner losing momentum or a long-shot gaining traction—will drive trading activity. Late-stage campaign spending, voter registration trends, and turnout models also influence how traders price different top-three scenarios as primary day approaches.
